Following a challenging first leg for English representatives in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16, Softfootball match performance analysts have evaluated the probability of each Premier League club reaching the quarterfinal stage.
All six English clubs involved in the competition failed to win their first-leg matches, making the second-leg fixtures crucial.
Liverpool – 70% chance of qualifying
The football world was left stunned after Galatasaray SK secured a surprising 1–0 victory over Liverpool in their UEFA Champions League knockout clash.
Despite the defeat, analysts still rate Liverpool’s chances of progressing at 70%. Galatasaray’s recent defensive instability has raised doubts about their ability to protect a narrow lead away from home.
During the Champions League playoff round against Juventus, Galatasaray nearly lost a three-goal advantage, conceding heavily before eventually securing qualification in extra time.
With the second leg at Anfield, Liverpool are seen as capable of overturning the deficit if they improve their finishing and attacking coordination.
Tottenham – 1% chance of qualifying
Tottenham Hotspur were heavily beaten 5–2 by Atlético Madrid in the first leg.
Given Tottenham’s inconsistent domestic form and their position near the lower end of the league table as of March 13, 2026, analysts believe the chances of overturning such a large deficit are extremely slim, estimating their probability at 1%.
Newcastle United – 20% chance of qualifying
Barcelona were held to a 1–1 draw by Newcastle United in their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 clash on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, and the result has reignited debate about Barcelona’s chances of winning the tournament.
However, the return match at the Camp Nou presents a much tougher challenge. Barcelona have historically produced strong performances at home, including famous comeback victories in European competitions.
Because of this factor, analysts estimate Newcastle’s qualification chances at 20%.
Arsenal – 70% chance of qualifying
Arsenal were held to a 1–1 draw away to Bayer 04 Leverkusen on Wednesday, 11th March 2026, in their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 clash.
Despite the draw, Arsenal are still considered among the favorites to progress. Their overall performance this season and squad depth have convinced analysts to assign them a 70% chance of reaching the quarterfinals.
Chelsea – 10% chance of qualifying
Chelsea suffered a heavy 5–2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg.
Given Chelsea’s mixed performances against top teams this season and the size of the deficit, analysts estimate their chances of qualifying at 10%, even though the second leg will take place at Stamford Bridge.
Manchester City – 30% chance of qualifying
Manchester City endured a disappointing night in the UEFA Champions League after suffering a heavy 3–0 defeat to Real Madrid.
Although the result was surprising, analysts still give City a 30% chance of qualification due to the tactical ability of manager Pep Guardiola and the unpredictable nature of knockout football.
Anticipation for the second leg
With the removal of the away goals rule, the second-leg matches remain open contests despite the first-leg scorelines. The upcoming fixtures promise intense battles as teams attempt to secure their place in the Champions League quarterfinals, with the possibility of further surprises still very much alive.
