As the 2026 FIFA World Cup heats up and the tournament edges closer to its conclusion, Opta has released its updated prediction model for who could lift the trophy. With France, England, Argentina and Norway already through to the quarter‑finals, the analytics point strongly toward one standout favourite.
Below is Opta’s projected winning probability:
| Country | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|
| France | 29.68% |
| England | 18.57% |
| Spain | 13.07% |
| Argentina | 12.00% |
| Norway | 7.38% |
Softfootball gathered that with Kylian Mbappé firing on all cylinders, the 2022 World Cup runners‑up France are currently viewed as the strongest contenders to win the 2026 World Cup. Their dominant performances, depth, and attacking firepower have placed them firmly at the top of Opta’s model.
