Softfootball analysts who track team, player and manager performances have observed a remarkable shift in the Premier League top-four race. Manchester United were nine points behind Aston Villa when Rúben Amorim was sacked.
The Portuguese coach was dismissed on 5 January following his public attack on the club’s hierarchy after a 1-1 draw at Leeds United the previous day. At that time, the gap to Villa felt unbridgeable.
However, the narrative has completely changed under Michael Carrick, who was appointed head coach for the remainder of the 2025/26 season on 13 January 2026. United are now fourth on 48 points, while Unai Emery’s Villa sit on 51 points after their recent defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Heading into matchday 28, a win for Manchester United would take them above Aston Villa. What once looked like a distant chase has been completely overturned.
Villa face Chelsea next in midweek. Any result could favour United. If Villa drop points, United leapfrog them. If Chelsea drop points, United’s grip on a top-four position tightens even further.
